My Fearless Rose Bowl Prediction

Now that the lowly Oregon State Beavers have lost both the Civil War and the Las Vegas Bowl it's the Oregon Ducks' turn on the big stage. To paraphrase the words of the immortal Joe Willie Namath, the Ducks will win the Rose Bowl. I guarantee it.

To be truthful that's a prediction I make with my heart rather than my head. I've been a Duck fan long enough to remember when having a winning season was the most we could hope for, when an invitation to the Poulin Weed Eater Bowl was a big deal and worth spending $650,000 to buy in. There were years when the only high note in six months of miserable and inept football was a single victory, usually over the slightly more miserable and inept Beavs. But times have changed. Duck football has a national profile now, with Times Square billboards and ESPN Gameday appearances, five-star recruits getting steak dinners at the nicest restaurant in town, escorted from the airport in a custom Humvee limousine that has the Nike-designed "O" emblazoned on the front doors.

On the field, my hope is the Ducks have the edge in speed and athletic ability, and their potent spread offense is more varied and challenging than anything the Buckeyes faced this year in the Big Ten, or in their patsy nonconference schedule versus New Mexico State, Toledo or Navy. Comparisions like this are usually far from perfect barometers, but Ohio State has two losses this season, to USC and Purdue, two teams Oregon also played and defeated.

The Oregon running and passing offense strikes from too many angles and defuses opponent's pressure with quickness and tempo. The no-huddle offense will ensure the Buckeye starters have to stay on the field, and by the second quarter they'll have their hands on their hips. Watch for LaMichael James to scoot through small cracks on the way to big gains. A series of vaunted defenses have vowed to stop him, but his ability to create and break free is utterly amazing.

Defensively the Ducks thrive on shutting down one element of the opponent's offense, and they will force Terrelle Pryor to beat them with his arm. The young quarterback doesn't have the pocket presence or the decision-making ability or the throwing footwork to win a game on his own. His counterpart, Jeremiah Masoli, is far better at creating and improvising, managing a big game, and responding to pressure situations. He's led the Ducks to fourth quarter comebacks in each of their last two games, and seems to love the tense, dramatic situations that require leadership and cool. Masoli's toughness and quiet purpose characterizes his whole team, and that's perfect for an environment like national tv on New Year's Day. These Ducks won't get rattled or overwhelmed. They'll be ready and jump out early.

The last big advantage the Ducks have is their coach. Though in his first year as headman Chip Kelly is a master of both detail and perspective, and has a tremendous flair for the correct bold decision. Oregon went for it on fourth down three times in the clutch versus Oregon State and converted each time. He wants destiny in his own hands. He wants to dictate the tempo and the pace of the game. Ohio State's Jim Tressel, on the other hand, is often undone in big games by his own conservative, careful nature, and unwillingness to take risks or vary his approach. The Buckeyes, like their coach's trademark sweatervest, are often staid and predictable. Speed and boldness and aggression will win the day.

Ohio State wants to overwhelm opponents with tradition, but that won't work in Pasadena. The Ducks may be cutting edge and fashion forward and the butt of many jokes, but they know how to block and tackle, and they do it faster and with better preparation than anyone else.

But I could be completely wrong. The thing to remember is, after all the hype and hoopla and fan posturing and passion, is that this is a game played by 19 to 22 year old kids. We'll get excited and lose our voices and throw pillows and swear, but they're the ones who run and pass, and when we're finished celebrating or crying in our beers they'll go back to midterms, video games and calling their girlfriends like nothing ever happened. I watched the "Road to the Rose Bowl" special on Comcast 37, and when the players were interviewed, I was shocked at how young they looked. You could pass David Paulsen or Mark Asper or Morgan Freeman in line at Safeway and think they were off-duty bag boys--they look like ordinary kids who might live down the street. And they are. They're just highly sought after and successful when they put on a helmet and pads.

We'll find out how successful tomorrow. For the second time in 50 years, the Oregon Ducks are in the Rose Bowl. The last time they were they got overwhelmed by traditional power from the Big Ten with a stingy defense. There were agonizing missed opportunities and they gave up too many big plays. Kijana Carter broke their hearts with an 80-yard run. Oregon drove down inside the ten just before half and failed to score as time ran out. Even though quarterback Danny O'Neil passed for a Rose Bowl record 456 yards, Penn State tacked on a late touchdown and the final wasn't even close.

This time it will be different. I guarantee it. And if not, there's always next year.